@MasterChief #135979
政客通过对外战争军事冒险来转移内部矛盾的具体原理、传导机制是什么？难道这一切不是建立在己方能打赢的基础上才去实施吗？如果打输了那可比内部矛盾还要糟糕呀
我同意你说的。我认为通过对外战争军事冒险来转移内部矛盾其实是个非常不合算的事情。战争的收益可能包括获得资源、开拓市场、疏散人口，或者说，尝试解决某些造成内部矛盾的因素；但是纯粹为了“转移矛盾”而开战，我觉得并不太可能。
“为转移内部矛盾发起战争论”有个专有理论，diversionary theory of war，一搜可以查到很多论文。根据相关维基，学者对于此种理论缺乏共识：
Despite the immense amount of effort and research, scholars have not yet formed a consensus of the accuracy of the theory, and empirical evidence is mixed at best.尽管有大量的努力研究，学者们对该理论的准确性还没有形成共识，实证证据也是参差不齐。
To begin with, there is an opposing theory that argues a state leader has the most leverage when citizens are content with domestic policy and he has high public approval ratings. It is then assumed that leaders are most likely to engage in international conflicts when the domestic approval is highest. Furthermore, some analysts argue that the entire basis for the argument, the idea that a foreign enemy brings a country together, is not as well founded as it originally seems. This idea relies heavily on sociological studies that focus on the cohesion of small groups. Problems arise when theorists try to apply this to a large group such as a nation state, which is composed of many smaller groups. In fact, there are examples of external conflict leading to more unrest between domestic groups. For example, World War I led to internal problems in Russia, eventually culminating in the Bolshevik Revolution. Some also argue that a government cannot just incite an international conflict whenever they wish. Although there are always conflicts going on among the international community, not all are compelling enough to justify the use of force to the public and the government may even be accused of overreacting to a situation. 首先，有一种相反的理论认为，当公民对国内政策感到满意，或者公众支持率较高时，国家领导人的影响力最大；当国内支持率最高时，领导人最有可能参与国际冲突。此外，一些分析家认为，外敌使国家团结起来的观点，整个论点的基础并不那么充分——这一观点主要依赖于社会学研究，而这些研究关注的是小团体的凝聚力，当理论家们试图将其应用于一个大群体，比如一个由许多小群体组成的民族国家，就会出现问题。事实上，有外部冲突导致国内群体更多动荡的例子。例如，第一次世界大战导致俄国的内部问题，最终导致布尔什维克革命。也有人认为，一个政府不能随心所欲地挑起国际冲突。虽然国际社会之间总在发生冲突，但并不是所有的冲突都有足够的说服力，足以让公众有理由使用武力，政府甚至可能被指责为对局势反应过度。
