Link:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2808734
下面是论文中结果部分的翻译：
在动态清零政策结束后的头 2 个月，中国 30 岁及以上人群的超额死亡人数估计为 187 万（95% CI，71 万-443 万；每千人 1.33 例）。超额死亡主要发生在老年人中，并且在中国大陆除西藏外所有省份都出现了超额死亡。
EDIT: 回复里补充了对论文中部分估计结果与实际公布数据的“交叉验证”。同时欢迎各位对上述“交叉验证”进行补充和修正，以得到更准确的结果。
下面是论文的英文摘要
Key Points Question Was the sudden end of China’s zero COVID policy associated with an increase in population all-cause mortality?
Findings In this cohort study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first 2 months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China, with the exception of Tibet.
Meaning These findings suggest that the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy in China was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality.
Abstract Importance In China, the implementation of stringent mitigation measures kept COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality low during the first years of the pandemic. However, China’s decision to end its dynamic zero COVID policy (a proactive strategy that deploys mass testing and strict quarantine measures to stamp out any outbreak before it can spread) in December 2022 resulted in a surge in COVID-19 incidence and hospitalizations. Despite worldwide attention given to this event, the actual impact of this sudden shift in policy on population mortality has not been empirically estimated.
Objective To assess the association of the sudden shift in China’s dynamic zero COVID policy with mortality using empirical and syndromic surveillance data.
Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed published obituary data from 3 universities in China (2 in Beijing and 1 in Heilongjiang) and search engine data from the Baidu index (BI; weighted frequency of unique searches for a given keyword relative to the total search volume on the Baidu search engine) in each region of China from January 1, 2016, to January 31, 2023. Using an interrupted time-series design, analyses estimated the relative change in mortality among individuals 30 years and older in the universities and the change in BI for mortality-related terms in each region of China from December 2022 to January 2023. Analysis revealed a strong correlation between Baidu searches for mortality-related keywords and actual mortality burden. Using this correlation, the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang was extrapolated to the rest of China, and region-specific excess mortality was calculated by multiplying the proportional increase in mortality by the number of expected deaths. Data analysis was performed from February 10, 2023, to March 5, 2023.
Exposure The end to the dynamic zero COVID policy in December 2022 in China.
Main Outcomes and Measures Monthly all-cause mortality by region.
Results An estimated 1.87 million (95% CI, 0.71 million-4.43 million; 1.33 per 1000 population) excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older in China during the first 2 months after the end of the zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.
Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of the population in China, the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality. These findings provide valuable insights for policy makers and public health experts and are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population may be associated with population mortality.
