本文来自芬兰银行新兴经济体研究所 (The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, BOFIT)
来源： https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2024/vw202434_1/
下面将提供英中双语内容，其中中文内容由deepl提供，本人仅作简单校对。 注意，原文中有一个关于消费者价格的表格，请打开原始链接查看。
China’s real industrial production growth in July was 5.1 % y-o-y, a marked slowing from the beginning of the year when output gains reached 7 %. Foreign trade, benefitting from the competitive advantage of a weak yuan, gave the most support to industrial output growth. The dollar value of Chinese goods exports in July was up by 6.7 % y-o-y (up 6.1 % in yuan). The value of exports rose by 2.2 % y-o-y in the first seven months of the year. The dollar value of goods imports rose in July by 7.3 % (up 6.7 % in yuan), and for all of the first seven months by 2.3 % y-o-y. The increase in imports, however, did not signal a significant pick-up in domestic consumer demand, but rather greater component imports of automobile manufacturers and tech firms. Nominal fixed investment increased by 3.6 % in January-July (growth in fixed investment for all of 2023 averaged 3 %). Industry played a key role in supporting investment, while service sector investment lagged last year’s pace.
中国 7 月份的实际工业生产同比增长 5.1%，与年初的 7% 相比明显放缓。受益于人民币疲软的竞争优势，外贸为工业产出增长提供了最大支持。7 月份，中国货物出口的美元价值同比增长了 6.7%（以人民币计算增长了 6.1%）。今年前七个月的出口额同比增长 2.2%。7 月份，商品进口的美元价值增长了 7.3%（以人民币计价增长了 6.7%），而今年前七个月的进口美元价值同比增长了 2.3%。然而，进口的增长并不意味着国内消费需求的显著回升，而是汽车制造商和科技公司零部件进口的增加。1-7 月份，名义固定投资增长 3.6%（2023 年全年固定投资平均增长 3%）。工业在支持投资方面发挥了关键作用，而服务业投资则落后于去年的步伐。
China’s retail sales growth, just 2.2 % y-o-y in July, nevertheless revived a bit in real terms. The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.2 % in July after remaining at 5 % for the previous three months. Youth unemployment, however, jumped from 13 % in June to 17.1 % in July, reflecting in part the latest wave of new graduates entering the workforce. Chinese consumer confidence, which has been in the doldrums for a long time, indicates the grinding effect of struggling real estate markets on consumers as the lion’s share of household wealth in China is tied up in real estate. Despite many support measures, real estate sector conditions, even with a slight slowing in the rate of contraction, remained weak in July. Figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that the apartment sales volume (measured by floorspace) decreased in July by about 15 % from a year earlier (down 19 % in January-July), while the value of apartment sales in July fell by 16 % y-o-y (down 24 % in January-July). Although apartment prices still appear to be dropping in many areas, reliable national-level figures on apartment price trends are unavailable.
中国 7 月份的零售额同比增长率仅为 2.2%，但实际增长率略有回升。城市地区的失业率在前三个月保持在 5%的水平后，7 月份上升至 5.2%。然而，青年失业率从6月份的13%跃升至7月份的17.1%，这在一定程度上反映了新一波毕业生进入劳动力市场的情况。中国消费者信心长期处于低迷状态，这表明房地产市场的挣扎对消费者产生了巨大影响，因为中国家庭财富的绝大部分都与房地产有关。尽管采取了许多支持措施，但 7 月份房地产行业的状况依然疲软，即使收缩速度略有放缓。中国国家统计局的数据显示，7 月份公寓销售量（按建筑面积计算）同比下降约 15%（1-7 月份下降 19%），公寓销售金额同比下降 16%（1-7 月份下降 24%）。尽管许多地区的公寓价格似乎仍在下降，但目前尚无可靠的全国性公寓价格趋势数据。
China’s statistical reporting gives no indications of inflationary pressure. July consumer prices were up by just 0.5 % y-o-y, while producer prices fell by 0.8 %. The People’s Bank of China eased monetary conditions slightly in July to boost the economy. The impacts could remain modest, however, as demand for financing is meeker that in earlier years. The PBoC’s broad financing measure, aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE), includes financing to households, central and local governments and non-financial firms. The July AFRE figure was 396 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2 % y-o-y (up 9.2 % in July 2023). Most of the growth was driven by higher public borrowing (up roughly 15 % y-o-y). Growth in the stock of bank loans has been slowing for a while. In July, it grew by 8.7 % y-o-y, down from 11.5 % in July 2023. The stock of loans granted to households contracted in July from previous months, while on-year growth fell below 1 %.
中国的统计报告没有显示通胀压力。7 月份居民消费价格同比仅上涨了 0.5%，而生产者价格则下降了 0.8%。中国人民银行在 7 月份小幅放松银根，以刺激经济。然而，由于融资需求比前几年更为疲软，因此影响可能仍然有限。中国人民银行的广义融资指标，即实体经济融资总量（AFRE），包括对家庭、中央和地方政府以及非金融企业的融资。7 月份的 AFRE 为 396 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%（2023 年 7 月同比增长 9.2%）。增长的主要原因是公共借款增加（同比增长约 15%）。银行贷款存量的增长已经放缓了一段时间。7 月份，银行贷款存量同比增长 8.7%，低于 2023 年 7 月的 11.5%。7 月份发放给家庭的贷款存量较前几个月有所收缩，同比增长率低于 1%。