请问你认为是什么导致了这次事件呢？

clash不是核心组件，不过也影响了不少人。

针对导火索，一千个人可能有一千个看法，毕竟让人翻墙这事原因可太多了。。

究竟什么是让真理部/国安/国保动手的理由呢。。

我也认可你说事情都真实发生。

我只是想把在本贴底下的讨论局限在这个事件上，群策群力看能不能真正确认这件事是真实的。

如果要讨论中共如何监控”翻墙“和其他可能产生颠覆的行为，可能需要另一篇总结。

前两天还在讨论国内三大运营商向提供给用户的华为光猫内部署”反诈“插件，今天就有许多翻墙工具都被连根拔起了。

受波及的翻墙工具的详细总结：https://github.com/net4people/bbs/issues/303

这次事件的起因可能是Clash For Windows的作者Fndroid在其推特首页 https://twitter.com/fndroid 以及其telegram频道 https://t.me/fndroid_news 上留下了过多的在个人隐私，导致很容易被追查到。

这次事件的导火索 不一定 是近期有非常多的人通过翻墙方式，在李老师不是你老师的推特 https://twitter.com/whyyoutouzhele 上表达了对当前局势的不满，然后被国安/国保/真理部等走狗看上了。

考虑到国内的机构都是向上负责的，可能是翻墙近期在墙内的影响力变大了，被上层人看到了，然后让手下的人去压一压影响。

你说的内容没问题，但有些跑题

请问你对这几帖里描述内容的真实性判断如何？做出判断的依据是？

请问你对这几帖的真实性判断如何？

请问你说的大规模监控和上面列出的帖子相关吗？

如果相关，有充分的证据能够分享吗？

信息来源：v2ex的三个贴子

噫，某些运营商开始在光猫内置反诈插件了

原始链接（谨慎打开）：https://www.v2ex.com/t/986550

web archive：https://web.archive.org/web/20231101042227/https://www.v2ex.com/t/986550

防不胜防，防不胜防啊，经过对光猫固件分析发现更多插件

原始链接（谨慎打开）：https://www.v2ex.com/t/987392

web archive：https://web.archive.org/web/20231101032903/https://www.v2ex.com/t/987392

关于本人发表不实信息的澄清及道歉信

原始链接（需要登录）：https://www.v2ex.com/t/987494

没有找到存档，下面是手工复制的原文

本人此前于 V2EX 平台发表的以下两个帖子相关信息未经证实系谣言，在此澄清，
/t/986550
/t/987392

以上两个帖子系本人非法侵入同事的光猫设备后断章取义，为炫耀技术发表，对相关运营商及相关公司带来不良影响和名誉损失，
经过现场民警网警和相关运营商技术人员的解答，光猫设备中不存在所谓的反诈插件，相关插件系保障光猫设备正常运行所必须的插件，光猫设备不会收集任何隐私信息，大家可以放心使用，相关运营商也为同事更换了另一型号的光猫设备，
所谓反诈电话是经过大数据研判存在被诈骗的风险时，由系统进行电话短信劝阻，防止群众因诈骗遭受损失。
文中所谓访问相关网站 3 分钟反诈来电实际为 11 分钟，与光猫设备无关，纯属巧合，
为了防范电信网络诈骗，建议下载安装国家反诈中心 APP ，
光猫设备系国有资产，未经授权不可进入，本人及同事的行为触犯了刑法第二百八十条非法获取计算机信息系统数据、非法控制计算机信息系统罪，感谢民警的及时制止，本人已经充分认识到错误，
经过民警的批评教育，本人充分认识到了自己行为及不当言论造成的危害，我已深刻反省认识到自身错误，在此对大家、对相关运营商及相关公司道歉，同时也对因提供超级密码停职的装维师傅道歉

知乎相关讨论：如何评价光猫内置反诈中心？

原始链接（谨慎打开）：https://www.zhihu.com/question/628361268

web archive：https://web.archive.org/web/20231101042045/https://www.zhihu.com/question/628361268

转贴原因：本人认为信息相对可信，但并没有十足把握。

希望各位能指出这一系列帖子中可信或可疑的部分，以让这些帖子帮助更多人。

这里再针对论文中的数据做一些“交叉验证”。

论文表2中，针对人口占全国约5%的浙江省，2022.12和2023.1两个月的预期死亡人数是52 962，估计死亡人数是145 367，预估超量死亡是92 405 (95%置信区间是36 005 - 217 513)。

相应的，浙江省实际公布数据还表明2023年一季度公布的火化人数是17.1万具。额外的，2020、2021和2022年的第一季度，全省火化遗体数分别为8.83万、9.3万和9.9万具。（下面的链接不是原始链接。在浙江省统计局上的原始网页已经消失了。）

https://www.voachinese.com/a/chinese-province-saw-cremations-jump-during-covid-surge-20230718/7185401.html

需要注意的是，估计结果和实际公布结果在时间上有一定差距（2022.12-2023.1 vs 2023.1-2023.3）。同时，实际公布的火化人数严格小于死亡人数。

实际数据在估计结果的置信区间上方。

个人认为，两者能够相互印证，意味着论文中的估计结果比较可信。

Link:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2808734

下面是论文中结果部分的翻译：

在动态清零政策结束后的头 2 个月，中国 30 岁及以上人群的超额死亡人数估计为 187 万（95% CI，71 万-443 万；每千人 1.33 例）。超额死亡主要发生在老年人中，并且在中国大陆除西藏外所有省份都出现了超额死亡。

EDIT: 回复里补充了对论文中部分估计结果与实际公布数据的“交叉验证”。同时欢迎各位对上述“交叉验证”进行补充和修正，以得到更准确的结果。

下面是论文的英文摘要

Key Points Question Was the sudden end of China’s zero COVID policy associated with an increase in population all-cause mortality?

Findings In this cohort study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first 2 months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China, with the exception of Tibet.

Meaning These findings suggest that the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy in China was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality.

Abstract Importance In China, the implementation of stringent mitigation measures kept COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality low during the first years of the pandemic. However, China’s decision to end its dynamic zero COVID policy (a proactive strategy that deploys mass testing and strict quarantine measures to stamp out any outbreak before it can spread) in December 2022 resulted in a surge in COVID-19 incidence and hospitalizations. Despite worldwide attention given to this event, the actual impact of this sudden shift in policy on population mortality has not been empirically estimated.

Objective To assess the association of the sudden shift in China’s dynamic zero COVID policy with mortality using empirical and syndromic surveillance data.

Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed published obituary data from 3 universities in China (2 in Beijing and 1 in Heilongjiang) and search engine data from the Baidu index (BI; weighted frequency of unique searches for a given keyword relative to the total search volume on the Baidu search engine) in each region of China from January 1, 2016, to January 31, 2023. Using an interrupted time-series design, analyses estimated the relative change in mortality among individuals 30 years and older in the universities and the change in BI for mortality-related terms in each region of China from December 2022 to January 2023. Analysis revealed a strong correlation between Baidu searches for mortality-related keywords and actual mortality burden. Using this correlation, the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang was extrapolated to the rest of China, and region-specific excess mortality was calculated by multiplying the proportional increase in mortality by the number of expected deaths. Data analysis was performed from February 10, 2023, to March 5, 2023.

Exposure The end to the dynamic zero COVID policy in December 2022 in China.

Main Outcomes and Measures Monthly all-cause mortality by region.

Results An estimated 1.87 million (95% CI, 0.71 million-4.43 million; 1.33 per 1000 population) excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older in China during the first 2 months after the end of the zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.

Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of the population in China, the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality. These findings provide valuable insights for policy makers and public health experts and are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population may be associated with population mortality.

这里附上TG上zlib的置顶消息

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其他的都是非官方的

from TG上的z-library channel https://t.me/zlibrary_official

Use singlelogin.re for now, singlelogin[.]me was seized.

Please avoid the following websites:

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董案的处理思路也是类似的。必须处理董案的原因是网络舆论已经对统治合法性和社会稳定性产生了前所未有的挑战，因此“置之不理”这一选项无法通过“稳定性影响评估”，被直接从候选方案中划去了。

中共为提升稳定性，还会故意将中共和中国政府在这件事中的身影抹去，通过言论控制和审查的手段。它们认为没人说中国政府失职，就没人会想到中国政府失职。

当然，中共在所有叙事中都会做上述事情，房间里的大象也是这么创造出来的。