一篇WSJ的报道,写的很直接 https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulated-price-sharply-higher-study-says-11572863400
具体的证据和分析在这篇paper中 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066
总结一下:
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按理说一个Tether coin的发布,它的发行方Tether Ltd.必须要放$1在它的reserve中。所以Tether是一个很好的crypto 买卖的中介货币(“About 75% of all bitcoin trading is in exchange for tethers” by WSJ)。
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Tether Ltd. 并没有维持它的reserve (“tether was only 74% backed by reserves” by WSJ),所以可以生造tether coin (“The study’s conclusion was tether was being printed regardless of customer orders.” by WSJ)。
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某个单一机构用大量滥发的tether尝试购买bitcoin,从而虚构bitcoin的需求,人为推高bitcoin的价格 (“One pattern was especially illustrative: The study looked at 95 nonconsecutive hours that comprised the largest percentage of tether dispersals. This showed a consistent pattern: In the three hours before those dispersals, the price of bitcoin was falling. Immediately after the dispersal, the price began rising. Those 95 hours accounted for 59% of bitcoin’s compounded returns between March 2017 and March 2018.” by WSJ)。
谈谈影响吧。首先,这篇报道给了facebook的libra coin沉重的一击,举例说明了currency backed coin并不可靠,还是可能不顾asset而滥发。其次,这对整个crypto 社区是一个沉重的打击,说明coin的价值和价格是没有asset可以支持,但是可以被一个人或者少数几个人进行人为操控的,因此不是一个以value为中心的投资品。最后,crypto 社区将来会是腥风血雨,投机者会尝试复制这种操控手法,对新进入crypto尝试投资的人进行财富掠夺。